Sunday, April 13, 2008

Taking stock, preparing for the future

My next marathon is only three weeks from today, so its time to take stock of my progress thus far and plan my strategy for the next three weeks.

Taking Stock.

Comparing my effort this year to my prep last year for the Lincoln (May 6) and KC (Oct 20) marathon's yields mixed results.

My prep for my first ever Marathon (Lincoln 07) was quite good. I had a solid running base, and in the four months preceding the event I ran 47 times for 326 miles. By this date last year, I had completed 37 runs for 256 miles, and completed an additional 10 runs for 69.8 miles in the three weeks before the marathon.

My prep for the KC Marathon was poor. If I count my Lincoln Marathon miles as prep for the KC Marathon, I ran 223.9 miles in the 5+ months between the two races. Not good, but the rest of the story is even worse. I had a decent June 07 with over 60 miles, but July and August were minimal. So, in the four months before KC I ran only 25 times for 119 miles. With three weeks to go, I had completed only 15 runs for about 80 miles, with 10 runs and 39 miles being completed in the last three weeks.

My current prep is better than last year's KC prep but far below Lincoln 07's prep. With three weeks left in the four month period, I have run 22 times for about 128 miles. My January and February were bad, but that is chronicled below. Barring accident, I should be able to complete an additional 10 runs for about 62 miles, bringing my pre-race total to 33 runs for 190 miles. This will put me 8 runs and 71 miles better than Kansas City, but 14 runs and 136 miles below Lincoln 07.

The information is interesting, but the trends from last year were even more interesting. I made incremental improvement in my time last year throughout February and March, but as I neared the end of my prep phase in April I had several "break through" days. For example, for my 8.5 mile times, in early March 07 I hovered between 106 and 110 minutes. But, on March 28, 07, I cut almost 7 minutes off my time. I cut another 6 minutes off by April 23, and cut off another 4 minutes only three days later. So, from March 19 to April 26, 07m I cut 16:25 off my overall time. My reductions in my 3.3 mi route were no less dramatic. My times throughout March ranged between 37 and 40 minutes. But, I knocked it down to 33:31 on April 19, and sliced off another 2 minutes on April 28 (my birthday) for a personal best 31:28. Significantly, just a few days before the KC marathon where I had less prep time, my time on the 3.3 route jumped back up to 34:52.

2008 has been a bit unkind, as my additional weight and multi-impacted running schedule saw my 3.3 time balloon to just over 36 minutes last month, and my 8.5 mile time tanking. Fortunately, I think my times are starting to trend downward again, which is a good sign. They won't be as low as my times last year because I have run less miles and am several pounds heavier, but If I can get them down a bit I'll be ok. I'm looking forward to next week's Novartis 10K to compare my progress under race conditions to last year's race.

So, what does all this mean? If I finish the month strong and watch my diet carefully, I'll be fine. Otherwise, I finish over 6 hrs again.

I did make some goals in January. 60 runs, 150 miles in March, 110 miles in April. Hah! Shot to crap. I may reach 90 in April! Maybe.

One final note. On July 8, 2006, I ran my first long run in many years, 15.33 miles, following the same basic path as I took this time (looped around the lake then, but no neighborhood loop). That time was 5:18:08. Today I went about the same distance in almost 2 hrs less time. At least I'm progressing.

The Next Three Weeks.

Unfortunately, I need work in every area. So, I will run a 3.3, a 5.5, and 8.5, and a 12-15 for each of the next two weeks. I'll then run an 8.5 and a 5.5 the week of the Marathon, with my last run being on Wednesday and resting Thursday - Saturday for the event on Sunday. Next Saturday is the Novartis 10K (6.2 mi), so I'll run that in the morning and see if I can add another run later in the day.

I have my diet program up and running, and am recording everything going into my mouth. I am trying to lose 12 lbs over the next 21 days. It will be a big task, but if I eat right I should be able to make this goal, which will help me be a bit lighter for the next marathon.

I will evaluate this in a couple of weeks, but I think I will use last year's race plan for the Marathon. Better clock management (I lost track of my time on several occassions last year) should help me keep my last 11 under control, and if I can average 4 mph over that distance I should finish in just under 3 hours. We shall see.

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